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UID:pretalx-flowpath-2025-RXBBXA@talks.staging.osgeo.org
DTSTART;TZID=CET:20250611T154000
DTEND;TZID=CET:20250611T155000
DESCRIPTION:In a scenario of climate changes forecasting the availability o
 f water from springs is desirable to prevent shortage in water supply to t
 he connected utilities like aqueducts and irrigation systems. That is\, it
  would be useful to know the “signature” response of the aquifer.\nThi
 s work focuses on the application of the ensemble smoother with multiple d
 ata assimilation (ES-MDA) to build a hydrological model for flow rate pred
 iction in a karst aquifer using the well-known instantaneous unit hydrogra
 ph method and the rational formula. The aquifer studied is the Bossea-Arte
 sinera karst aquifer\, located in northwest Italy in the Maritime Alps wit
 h an infiltration basin of around 6 km2. The input data are observed disch
 arge flow rates\, daily precipitations\, and temperatures. Some of the cha
 llenges that have been addressed in this research are the modelling of inf
 iltration as a time-varying infiltration coefficient\, the classification 
 of precipitation into snowfall and rainfall\, and the transformation of sn
 ow into water equivalent infiltration. Others parameters of the hydrologic
  model such as base flow\, infiltration coefficient\, or snow melting cont
 ribution were estimated.\nAs first step\, individual events were examined 
 and the ES-MDA produced excellent results with values of Nash-Sutcliffe ef
 ficiency never below 0.9. Then on the basis of 27 such events\, two averag
 e models were identified: one to be applied in spring months when the impa
 ct of snow melting is important and the other during autumn months. These 
 average models used for predictions did not work as remarkably as the indi
 vidually fitted models: fall model performances were better that those of 
 the spring model suggesting that the snow equivalent calculation has to be
  improved\, being the main difference between the two seasons. It is diffi
 cult to conclude whether a signature exist for Bossea\, still it is clear 
 that the ES-MDA is a powerful tool to investigate single event and give in
 sights on the aquifer dynamics.
DTSTAMP:20260427T201518Z
LOCATION:Room R3
SUMMARY:Predicting discharge in complex karst aquifers through the ensemble
  smoother with multiple data assimilation: the case of Bossea aquifer. - I
 laria Butera
URL:https://talks.staging.osgeo.org/flowpath-2025/talk/RXBBXA/
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